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Brazil vs Germany Semi Finals Odds

germany-world-cup-fans-hotBrazil is taking on Germany on Tuesday in the first semi-final match of the 2014 World Cup. As many of you have already heard, Neymar has been taken out of the equation for Brazil after suffering a back injury in their last match against Colombia. This is spelling trouble for the home team, at least according to the betting public, and it’s not the only loss to their roster. Germany and Brazil are going into this match at even money, but Brazil has the better record head to head. These two teams have played a total of 21 times over the years and Brazil has come away with the victory 12 times. They drawn with the Germans five times and only lost to them on four occasions. The last time they played against each other was in 2004 and that match ended in a 1-1 draw.

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Brazil vs. Germany Betting Preview

As we mentioned earlier, Brazil’s leading scorer and star player, Neymar, is out for the rest of the tournament and World Cup bettors in Canada are not taking the news well. They are flocking towards the German side of things as more than 50% of the full time result action is with the German side as of right now. With nearly 15% of the betting sitting with a draw outcome, that leaves very little for Brazil. It doesn’t help their cause any further that Neymar isn’t the only key player that won’t be taking the pitch for them on Tuesday. Thiago Silva was kind enough to pick up his second yellow card in their game against Colombia and secure himself a suspension.

All in all, one thing that you can say for this Brazilian team in this year’s World Cup is that they are doing an excellent job winning despite themselves. The usually dominant force has been just barely eking by in this tournament, but doing to it very successfully. They proved this well in their game against Chile to get into the quarter-finals. After being huge favorites in this game, Brazil was forced to take the game in penalties after committing far too many fouls and gaining far too few possessions. These mistakes are not the type that can be afforded against a team as well oiled and talented as the Germans.

Speaking of the German team, they are looking to be in a great position to take this match despite the fact that they are even money with Brazil. Just like Brazil, they’ve scored ten goals in this World Cup, but unlike Brazil, they’ve also managed to win three of their games with clean sheets and only allow their opponents a total of three goals. They will also have their star offensive player on the field while Neymar is watching from the side lines. Thomas Muller has four goals so far in the 2014 World Cup which is coincidentally the same number that Neymar had at the time of his injury. The only red flag looming over Muller is that he’s been scoreless in Germany’s last two games. Whether he’s in a drought or waiting to strike however, he’ll no doubt be an upper hand for the Germans.

Bloomberg Sports has provided us with some insight into this match using their statistical modeling software. They are calling for this game to end in a 1-1 draw and for Germany to win in penalties. According to their numbers however, there is only a 51% chance of Germany coming out on top when all is said and done. By their numbers, the next most likely result is a 1-0 victory for German in regulation.

Brazil vs. Germany Full Time Result Odds from William Hill

Brazil to win @ odds of 2.80

Germany to win @ odds of 2.80

Draw @ odds of 2.88

Asian Handicaps

Brazil -0.25 @ 2.35

Germany +-.25 @ 1.68

Brazil vs. Germany Over/Under Goal Betting and Odds

Both these teams have been getting the job done defensively in this tournament; regardless of their disparity in execution. And with Brazil’s leading goal scorer out of the mix, the chances of a high scoring game get just that much worse. William Hill Canada has set the over/under for this match at 2.5 goals and the under is the favorite by a pretty considerable margin. You could say that Germany’s had a tougher road getting to this point and the number of times they’ve shut out strong opponents speaks volumes to their chances of doing so here against Brazil, especially with Brazil limping. The people over at Bloomberg Sports agree with this idea as they are calling for this game to stay below the 2.5 goal mark 62.7% of the time.

Over 2.5 goals @ odds of 2.5

Under 2.5 goals @ odds of 1.5

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